Dutch Intelligence Service Warns Russia Could Launch Limited Military Operation Against NATO Member After Ukraine War

The MIVD's 2025 annual report, published April 21, assessed Russia could generate sufficient combat power for a regional NATO conflict within one year of Ukraine hostilities ending, under conditions most favorable to Moscow, while separately stating that conventional war against NATO is "virtually ruled out" so long as fighting in Ukraine continues 12. The service stated Russia's objective would be to fracture the alliance politically through limited territorial gains rather than defeat it militarily, under the threat of nuclear weapons use if necessary, and identified specific preparatory steps already underway: October tests of the nuclear-powered Burevestnik cruise missile and Poseidon torpedo, termination of a moratorium on deploying intermediate-range ground-launched weapons, and the likely stationing of the Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile in Belarus 12. The Dutch Defence Ministry's annual strategy document characterized Europe as in a "grey area" between war and peace and announced €20 billion in phased additional defence investment through 2035, with a goal of achieving over half of operational outcomes via unmanned systems within five years 345.