Armed Conflict — 2026-10-01

Ukraine Vivaldi Counteroffensive Phase 3 Advances 51 Square Kilometers Near Lyman After Neutralizing Russian Drone Defenses

BLUFUkraine's suppression of Russian drone and electronic warfare cover before Phase 3 restored mechanized maneuver near Lyman, but no indicators yet confirm this approach can scale to the next sector.

Ukraine's 3rd Army Corps commander, Brig. Gen. Andrii Biletskyi, said on September 28 that forces liberated Nove, Ridkodub and Katerynivka and restored control over Karpivka and Novomykhailivka, adding 51 square kilometers for a 176-square-kilometer total across three phases Vivaldi liberates 3 more settlements, inflicts 2,000 Russian losses, 3rd Army Corps announces" data-source="Kyiv Independent" data-url="https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-operation-vivaldi-liberates-3-more-settlements-inflicts-2-000-russian-losses-3rd-army-corps-announces/" data-rt="primary" data-mbfc="high" data-otype="digital_news">12. The corps claimed more than 2,000 Russian losses and over 250 prisoners in this phase, figures not independently verified 13. Biletskyi said a feint from Shandryholove toward Zelena Dolyna drew Russian reserves away from Nove, and that modified Soviet-era armored personnel carriers served as explosive ground drones 12. ISW observed that these vehicles reached heavy Russian fortifications without drone strikes, and attributed this to Ukrainian shaping operations and an intermediate-range strike campaign against Russian drones, electronic warfare and logistics 24.

Analysis
Suppressing Russian drone and electronic warfare cover before committing armor can reopen mechanized maneuver on a drone-dominated front. Explosive carriers reaching fortified positions untouched implies Russian jamming and drone teams were degraded, not merely evaded. ISW's independent assessment, repeated across outlets, gives this narrative moderate reliability, though the corps' loss and prisoner figures remain unverified. Local Russian reporting failures and misallocated reserves, which milbloggers describe, may instead explain the unopposed approach more than durable Ukrainian overmatch. Whether the corps can repeat this in a fourth phase cannot be assessed with confidence, since no indicators yet show the same shaping conditions in the next sector. Russia's shift toward Sloviansk means the Lyman pincer no longer drives Ukrainian planning. Cumulative gains of 176 square kilometers, up from roughly 125, show the method is scaling.

7 sources

Ukraine's Operation Vivaldi liberates 3 more settlements, inflicts 2,000 Russian losses, 3rd Army Corps announces - Kyiv Independent
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 28, 2026 - Institute for the Study of War / Critical Threats
Operation Vivaldi, Phase Three: Russia Fell for Ukraine's Battlefield Bluff, Lost 2,000 Troops and Key Bridgehead - United24 Media
Vivaldi counteroffensive advanced after Ukraine took Russia's drones out of the fight, ISW assesses - Euromaidan Press
ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 29, 2026 - Kyiv Post
Operation Vivaldi surprised Russia by disrupting drones and logistics - The New Voice of Ukraine
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 28, 2026 - Institute for the Study of War / Critical Threats