Global Economy — 2026-05-31

EU Frets as China Builds Industrial Base in Morocco to Bypass European Tariffs

BLUFWhether Brussels opens an anti-circumvention case against Chinese production in Morocco by late 2026 remains genuinely uncertain, and delay favors entrenchment that would hollow out Europe's EV tariff regime.

China is establishing an industrial base in Morocco to supply EU markets while routing around tariffs on Chinese-origin goods, the Financial Times reported on May 31 1. ECFR documented in March that China produced 70 percent of EVs globally in 2025, controls 85 percent of global battery manufacturing capacity, and by late 2025 had accumulated an export surplus estimated at up to 20 million vehicles 2. The EU imposed tariffs on Chinese EV imports in 2024; in April the European Commission levied anti-dumping duties of 11 to 25.4 percent on glass fibre produced by Chinese firms in Egypt, Bahrain, and Thailand 3. Glass Fibre Europe's president called the April measures "insufficient to fully address" the strategies Chinese producers pursue through third-country investments 3.

Analysis
Whether Brussels opens a formal anti-circumvention investigation into Chinese goods manufactured in Morocco is genuinely uncertain by November 2026: no complaint has been filed, and Morocco's Mediterranean partnership status creates political friction constraining Commission action. The glass fibre case documents the mechanism: Brussels levied anti-dumping duties on Chinese producers in Egypt, Bahrain, and Thailand, yet the industry called those measures insufficient. China's vehicle export surplus of up to 20 million units sustains third-country manufacturing logic regardless of individual investigation outcomes. Chinese investment in Morocco may instead target African market access as the primary commercial driver, making any tariff-bypass effect incidental. Moderate confidence reflects convergent ECFR documentation of China's overcapacity and independent financial press reporting, against the absence of any visible Morocco investigation trigger. If no case opens, Chinese-origin goods transit the tariff gap for at least another procurement cycle.

3 sources

EU frets as China builds an industrial base in Morocco - Financial Times
EV endgame: Stalling China's export surge in Europe's southern neighbourhood - European Council on Foreign Relations
EU cracks down on Chinese goods bypassing tariffs via Belt and Road Initiative - Euronews