Iran & Middle East — 2026-07-14

Iran Signals It Could Order Houthis to Close Red Sea Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Widening Shipping Threat

BLUFIran's public linkage of Bab el-Mandeb to Hormuz is very unlikely to produce actual Houthi closure before mid-August, functioning instead as a low-cost coercive signal to Washington.

A senior Yemeni official warned Monday that Houthi forces are prepared to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if Saudi Arabia continues strikes on Yemen, telling Iran's Press TV that closing both Bab el-Mandeb and Hormuz "in an operational alliance" could push oil prices to $200 a barrel 12. Ansarullah political bureau member Mohammed al-Farah made the statement, characterizing Saudi strikes as incited by Washington 1. Middle East scholar Fawaz Gerges told Reuters Iran "is willing to go all the way" and is signaling it can threaten both chokepoints simultaneously, while King's College London's Andreas Krieg called the Bab el-Mandeb threat "another nuclear option" for Tehran, deployable only if all-out war becomes unavoidable 13. Gulf Research Center chairman Abdulaziz Sager said the Houthis retain the capability to disrupt Bab el-Mandeb navigation but are unlikely to act without direction from Tehran, adding that both a victorious and a defeated Iran carry consequences for the region and that Gulf states may accept certain costs to preserve stability 13.

Analysis
Houthi closure of Bab el-Mandeb beyond current harassment is very unlikely before August 13, since the Houthis lack authority to act without explicit direction from Tehran and Krieg frames the threat as a further option held in reserve behind Hormuz rather than an opening move. Confidence in this judgment is low, given single-source Reuters wire reporting redistributed nearly verbatim across gCaptain, Al-Monitor and Yahoo News with no independent corroboration, and no observed indicator such as naval movement or mining beyond the rhetorical statement itself. A named Ansarullah official has now made the threat explicit for the first time, tying closure directly to continued Saudi strikes and coupling it to Hormuz in a stated operational alliance, though the statement plausibly functions as leverage to deter further Saudi action rather than as notice of a decision already made. Continued rhetoric alone leaves current transit and insurance arrangements unchanged, while an actual closure would force US and allied navies to extend Red Sea escorts and shippers to resume Africa rerouting.
5 sources
  1. Red Sea Shipping Faces Renewed Risk as Iran Signals Pressure Beyond Hormuz - gCaptain (Reuters)
  2. Analysis-After Hormuz, Iran turns to Red Sea gateway as new pressure point - Al-Monitor (Reuters)
  3. Analysis-After Hormuz, Iran turns to Red Sea gateway as new pressure point - Yahoo News (Reuters)
  4. After blocking Hormuz, Iran signals it could ramp up pressure and shut Red Sea gateway - The Times of Israel
  5. Analysis-After Hormuz, Iran Turns to Red Sea Gateway as New Pressure Point - U.S. News & World Report (Reuters)

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