Middle East — 2026-10-03

Saudi Arabia Plans Major Counteroffensive Against Houthis for Bab al-Mandeb Strait Control

BLUFSaudi Arabia will likely launch a ground counteroffensive near Bab al-Mandeb by late October, but fractured coalition forces and exposed oil infrastructure make decisive success far from assured.

Two U.S. officials told Axios that Saudi Arabia and Yemeni government forces plan a counteroffensive "in the coming days" to push the Houthis off Red Sea coastal areas controlling Bab al-Mandeb, with Saudi air cover, and that the U.S. will take no kinetic action "for now" 1. Reuters, relayed by The Jerusalem Post and Ynetnews, cited six people with knowledge of the preparations who gave timing estimates from within a week to after early November, and said Riyadh is weighing a narrow coastal push or a multi-front assault involving more than 100,000 Yemeni troops 234. Axios reported Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman again asked Secretary Hegseth for airstrikes on Thursday, and that U.S. forces gave the Saudis over 200 Houthi targets in two weeks 1. Reuters sources said Pakistan sent air-defense equipment to Aden and has 30,000-40,000 troops in Saudi Arabia, with no decision to fight in Yemen 23.

Analysis
Saudi-backed Yemeni forces are likely to launch a publicly reported ground counteroffensive against Houthi-held coastal areas near Bab al-Mandeb by October 31, because Riyadh has concluded it cannot negotiate while the Houthis hold the strait. Execution risk is high: the anti-Houthi coalition is fractured, Saudi oil infrastructure remains exposed to retaliation, and success hinges on local ground-force performance, with Saudi air power and U.S. targeting data the main enablers. Confidence is moderate, since reporting rests on one original U.S. official account that Reuters' detail matches but does not independently confirm, and timing estimates run from days to after the early November midterms. The leaks may instead be Saudi signaling to draw U.S. airstrikes, with the offensive delayed or confined to air power. If it stalls, CENTCOM and the White House must decide on direct strikes, and insurers will raise Red Sea risk pricing.

4 sources

Saudis plan major offensive against the Houthis, but U.S. won't join for now - Axios
Saudis plan assault on Houthis to break Red Sea chokehold - The Spokesman-Review
Saudi Arabia planning operation to push back Houthis' Red Sea chokehold - The Jerusalem Post
Saudi Arabia plans 100,000-troop Yemen offensive to retake Bab el-Mandeb from Houthis - Ynetnews