China Coast Guard Patrols Taiwan-Controlled Pratas Islands Asserting Jurisdiction in South China Sea

Analysis
Two incursions in four days, 15 expulsions this year, and Beijing's public claim of "indisputable sovereignty" point to patrols that are routine and deliberate rather than episodic. Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration will very likely report at least one further China Coast Guard vessel entering restricted or territorial waters around the Pratas Islands between October 23 and November 22, 2026. Moderate confidence rests on Taiwanese and Chinese official accounts that agree on the pattern, though no source shows Beijing's planned patrol tempo. The Reuters wire and its Korea Times republication are a single stream, so independent weight comes from the pairing of Taipei's coast guard detail with Beijing's own statements. Each encounter risks a collision or water cannon exchange that Beijing has already said carries consequences. Beijing may instead be timing the patrols to the water cannon dispute and could pause once that pressure fades, leaving a quiet month. If patrols continue, Taiwan's coast guard and defense planners keep surge capacity at Pratas and Washington keeps pressing the issue publicly. A pause would let Taipei shift vessels elsewhere.