Humanitarian — 2026-10-28

Russia Replaces Ukrainians With Russian Settlers in Occupied Kherson, Only 10-20 Percent of Population Remains

BLUFRussia's subsidized settlement of occupied left-bank Kherson is building demographic facts on the ground that will complicate any negotiated territorial reversion.

Ukraine's Defense Intelligence Directorate (HUR) estimates that only 10-20% of the roughly 500,000 prewar residents of the Russian-occupied left bank of Kherson Oblast may remain, according to Euromaidan Press 1, with 112 Ukraine, UkraNews and UkraineWorld relaying the same figures 234. HUR said Russia is displacing Ukrainians through unbearable living conditions and unlawful seizure of private property 13. HUR also said Moscow is recruiting Russian teachers, doctors and cultural workers through "Zemsky" programs, offering 2 million rubles to teachers and doctors, 1 million to junior medical staff, and contracts of at least five years 13. HUR stated that the policy bears hallmarks of war crimes and genocidal practices. All four outlets rely on this single HUR statement, and no independent verification of the population figure has surfaced 134.

Analysis
Russia is pursuing demographic consolidation of occupied left-bank Kherson through displacement and subsidized settlement, which would make any return of the territory far harder to administer. The Zemsky packages, 2 million rubles for teachers and doctors on contracts of at least five years, point to a durable settler base rather than temporary staffing. The 10-20 percent residency figure is a Ukrainian intelligence estimate, and no census, UN count or satellite housing data confirms it. Actual residency could be higher, since many residents left and returned or hold dual registration. Kyiv also has reason to publicize the claim before talks resume, because a freeze on current lines would lock in these demographics. Confidence is low: all four outlets relay one HUR statement, with no primary reporting or independent verification.

4 sources