IRGC Launches Drones at Commercial Ships in Hormuz Days After Signing Peace Agreement

Analysis
The pattern of IRGC attacks sustained across multiple intercepts since Sunday's signing indicates the Corps is accelerating its maritime campaign as coercive leverage while nuclear negotiations remain unresolved, and additional strikes are likely within the next 30 days. Analytic confidence is moderate, grounded in consistent CENTCOM reporting and observable IRGC patterns but limited by the absence of independent secondary sourcing and any visibility into whether Khamenei authorized the campaign or simply failed to restrain the Corps. The MOU contains no enforcement mechanism against independent IRGC action. The strikes may instead reflect institutional autonomy, with the Corps preserving leverage and operational relevance before a finalized agreement narrows its mandate. If the tempo holds, naval commanders will need to determine whether steady-state intercept operations are sustainable or whether MOU implementation should be conditioned on a formal IRGC stand-down.