Parts of Somalia face famine risk for first time since 2022 as humanitarian crisis deepens

Somalia faces its first famine risk analysis since 2022, centered on Burhakaba district in Bay region, where famine is projected under a worst-case scenario of continued Gu season rainfall failure, sharply rising food prices, and insufficient humanitarian scale-up through June 2026. An estimated 6 million Somalis, 31% of the population, face acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3+), including 1.9 million at emergency levels (IPC Phase 4), a number that has tripled in under a year; 1.9 million children are acutely malnourished, with 493,000 facing severe acute malnutrition and roughly 40% of under-fives in Burhakaba already acutely malnourished. Food prices have surged up to 70% and fuel costs 150% in some areas, driven by Middle East conflict disruption to the Strait of Hormuz and compounded by three consecutive failed rainy seasons. The 2026 Somalia Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan is only 15.2% funded, with roughly 90% of those in need receiving little or no support.