Americas — 2026-05-29

US-Mexico Trade Talks Begin as Relations Falter Over Cartels and USMCA Review

BLUFA finalized US-Mexico USMCA deal before the July 1 deadline is very unlikely, leaving Washington with structural leverage to link trade access to cartel cooperation demands indefinitely.

The US and Mexico opened the first formal bilateral round of the USMCA Joint Review on May 27 in Mexico City, with Deputy USTR Jeff Goettman leading the US delegation and Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard leading Mexico's 12. Three rounds are scheduled through the week of July 20, with the first covering economic security and rules of origin, the second agriculture and fair competition, and the third agenda unspecified 1. Both Greer and Ebrard have said publicly that a full resolution before the July 1 extension deadline is unlikely; Ebrard separately called the US 50% tariff on Mexican steel and aluminum "unsustainable and unjustified" 23. USTR has announced no schedule for negotiations with Canada, and Greer described differences with Ottawa as "significant" and difficult to resolve 3.

Analysis
A finalized bilateral USMCA deal before July 1 is very unlikely. Both Greer and Ebrard have said so publicly, and the third scheduled negotiating round falls the week of July 20, structurally after the deadline. Analytic confidence is moderate, resting on explicit statements from both lead negotiators and a published schedule that cannot close before the trigger date. The bilateral track may instead function primarily as leverage against Canada, with Washington calibrating warmer posture toward Mexico City to pressure Ottawa into accepting terms Ottawa has publicly refused. Missing the deadline locks in a recurring annual review mechanism through 2036, giving Washington persistent leverage over cartel cooperation demands and complicating capital commitment timing for US firms with Mexican supply chain exposure.
4 sources
  1. The United States and Mexico Announce Series of Bilateral Negotiating Rounds Related to the First Joint Review of the USMCA - Office of the United States Trade Representative
  2. First USMCA Joint Review Round Opens in Mexico City - Mexico Business News
  3. Mexico, US set three rounds of USMCA trade talks without Canada - CGTN
  4. As Trade Talks Begin, U.S.-Mexico Ties Falter - Foreign Policy

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