Middle East — 2026-07-13

US Launches Multiple Rounds of Strikes on Iran as Ceasefire Collapses and Tehran Declares Strait of Hormuz Closed

BLUFTehran's simultaneous escalation across four Gulf states and pursuit of Oman-mediated passage talks signals a coercive bargaining strategy that likely produces further US strikes before July 20.

US Central Command began a new wave of strikes on Iran at 7:15pm Saturday, the third in a week, after Iran fired on the Cyprus-flagged container ship MV GFS Galaxy, which suffered significant engine-room damage and left a crew member missing . Iran said it closed the Strait of Hormuz "until further notice" and that the strikes had rendered diplomatic efforts of recent months futile, while Centcom disputed the closure and the Joint Maritime Information Center reported the strait's southern route still passable . Iran's Revolutionary Guards struck Kuwait, Jordan, Qatar and other Gulf states in response, destroying a command center and drone hangars in Jordan; the UAE reported intercepting missiles and drones, and explosions and sirens were reported in Doha and Bahrain, with only minor damage and no casualties so far . President Trump had already declared the ceasefire that halted fighting since February 28 at an end, and a senior Iranian source told Reuters that Iran, the US, Qatar and Pakistan had agreed to arrange talks, with Foreign Minister Araghchi meeting Omani counterparts in Oman on passage arrangements for the strait .

Analysis
Tehran's simultaneous pursuit of Oman-mediated passage talks and expanded strikes on four Gulf states shows Iran treating negotiation and escalation as complementary levers rather than sequential steps, with the closure declaration functioning as leverage ahead of the Araghchi-Albusaidi talks rather than an enforceable blockade, since Iran lacks the capacity to interdict the full waterway without drawing further US strikes. CENTCOM's rejection of the closure claim, corroborated by the Joint Maritime Information Center's confirmation that the strait's southern route remains passable, indicates the practical shipping disruption still lags the political declaration. Moderate confidence reflects converging behavioral indicators across multiple escalation cycles but rests on secondary-only sourcing with no direct window into Tehran's decision calculus. The Gulf-wide strikes may reflect the new supreme leader's domestic pressure to avenge his predecessor's death as much as calculated bargaining, and whether the new four-party channel produces a passage arrangement or Iran resumes attacks on shipping to sustain pressure remains genuinely uncertain.
4 sources
  1. US launches new wave of strikes against Iran as Tehran says diplomacy has proven futile - The Guardian
  2. U.S., Iran trade wave of strikes while disputing status of Hormuz - The Japan Times
  3. US strikes Iran, Tehran says Strait of Hormuz closed, Gulf states hit - Manila Times
  4. US launches new strikes on Iran over Strait of Hormuz attacks - Middle East Eye

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