Adversary Intelligence — 2026-07-05

FSB Plans Disinformation Campaign Using Fabricated Volhynia Documents to Strain Ukraine-Poland Relations

BLUFMoscow's timing of the Volhynia forgery operation to preempt the Sybiha-Sikorski diplomatic track marks the bilateral reconciliation effort as a strategic threat the Kremlin intends to kill early.

Andriy Kovalenko, head of Ukraine's Center for Countering Disinformation, said on Telegram that Russia's FSB plans to release falsified World War II-era documents on the Volhynia tragedy on July 5, with Russian state media instructed to amplify the material 12. Interfax-Ukraine reported, citing its own sources, that FSB Director Alexander Bortnikov is personally overseeing the information operation targeting Ukraine-Poland relations 2, a claim UNITED24 Media also attributed to a Kovalenko statement naming Bortnikov 3. Ukrainian officials additionally reported heightened activity by Russian-linked bot networks pushing emotionally charged content on Polish-language platforms centered on historical Polish-Ukrainian disputes 3. The warning follows recent talks in Warsaw between Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha and Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski on easing historical disagreements, including proposed historian meetings and religious-leader dialogue 3.

Analysis
Bortnikov's personal oversight signals the Kremlin treats the Ukraine-Poland relationship as a priority wedge rather than an opportunistic target, timed to reopen the Volhynia wound before the Sybiha-Sikorski track on historian and clergy dialogue produces results. State media and Polish-language bot amplification together indicate a coordinated multi-channel push. All three outlet accounts trace to Kovalenko's single Telegram disclosure, leaving Interfax's Bortnikov attribution to unnamed sources uncorroborated by any second channel. Success turns less on the documents' content than on whether Polish domestic audiences credit them ahead of any historian-led rebuttal. The disclosure itself may function as Ukrainian preemptive inoculation, naming and discrediting the operation before its July 5 release rather than confirming independently verified Russian intent.

4 sources

Russian Intelligence Plans Disinformation Campaign to Strain Ukraine-Poland Relations - Kyiv Post
Russia Plans a Propaganda Stunt Involving Falsified Documents Related to the Volhynia Tragedy, Aiming to Drive a Wedge Between Ukraine and Poland — CCD - Interfax-Ukraine
Russia's FSB Chief Is Personally Leading Campaign to Split Ukraine and Poland - UNITED24 Media
Telegram post disclosing FSB operation to fabricate Volhynia-related documents targeting Ukraine-Poland relations - Andrii Kovalenko (Center for Countering Disinformation, Telegram)