Energy & Commodities — 2026-07-18

Oil Prices on Track for 12 Percent Weekly Gain With Brent at 85 Dollars as US Iran Strikes and Hormuz Traffic Collapse Drive Supply Fears

BLUFWashington's shift from rhetorical pressure to physical interdiction of Iranian exports, combined with Tehran's bid to activate a second chokepoint at Bab el-Mandeb, puts roughly 24 million barrels of daily transit at simultaneous risk.

Brent crude traded near $85 a barrel on Friday, up about 12 percent for the week and its biggest weekly gain since April, while WTI rose a similar amount to roughly $80 123. US Central Command reported a sixth consecutive night of strikes on Iranian targets Thursday into Friday, including coastal surveillance, air defense and logistics sites, after earlier in the week disabling a sanctioned tanker near Iran's Kharg Island export terminal and reimposing a naval blockade outside the Strait of Hormuz 12. Iran struck two UAE-managed oil tankers transiting Hormuz's southern lane near Oman, and Bloomberg and Invezz reported Iran has asked Yemen's Houthi movement to prepare to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if the US targets Iranian energy infrastructure 234. Traffic through Hormuz, which carries about 20 million barrels a day, has dropped sharply since the escalation began 14.

Analysis
The reimposed Hormuz blockade and disabled tanker near Kharg Island mark a shift from rhetorical pressure to physical interdiction of Iranian oil exports, and Tehran's request that the Houthis prepare to shut Bab el-Mandeb signals intent to widen the campaign to a second chokepoint carrying roughly 4.2 million barrels a day. Sixth-night strike tempo against coastal surveillance and air-defense sites indicates Washington intends to sustain rather than pause the campaign. Moderate confidence in this trajectory rests on consistent CENTCOM reporting on strike cadence but lacks independent confirmation of Iranian retaliatory intent toward Red Sea shipping.
4 sources
  1. Oil Prices on Track for 12% Weekly Gain Amid Escalating Middle East Tensions - Athens Times
  2. Oil Prices Set for Biggest Weekly Surge Since April as Iran War Escalates - OilPrice.com
  3. Oil Holds Big Weekly Gain as Iran War Escalation Threatens Flows - Bloomberg
  4. Oil's 12% weekly jump turns two shipping lanes into the market's fault line - Invezz

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