Brent Crude Rises to 103.67 Dollars as US Intercepts Iranian Tankers

Analysis
The IEA's 10.1-million-barrel-per-day supply disruption, the largest on record per converging Fortune and Polyester Time reporting, establishes the market under unprecedented supply stress without producing crisis pricing. Spare capacity and demand destruction are absorbing the geopolitical premium more than supply fundamentals alone would predict, with lower price thresholds having already failed to hold under active Hormuz hostilities and tanker seizures. Brent exceeding 115 dollars per barrel within the next 90 days is very unlikely; the current equilibrium sits alongside the Panama Canal fee surge and Indonesia-Russia oil deal as structural rerouting rather than a crisis signal. Iranian oil transiting through shadow fleet transfers may be included in current production estimates rather than counted as removed supply, meaning actual supply removal exceeds the IEA figure and the price correction has been delayed rather than prevented.