Middle East — 2026-10-29

Israel Election Exits Show Netanyahu and Eisenkot Blocs Close as Coalition Talks Loom

BLUFNeither bloc can form a majority without Arab-led parties, and both reject that path, pointing toward protracted coalition gridlock under a caretaker Netanyahu government.

Neither Netanyahu's bloc nor Gadi Eisenkot's bloc reached the 61 seats needed for a majority after Tuesday's vote, according to exit polls and partial counts 12. With more than 80% counted, CNBC reported the pro-Netanyahu bloc narrowly ahead at about 54 seats to 49, with Arab-led parties near 18 2. CBS News cited local media projections of 53, 48 and 19 seats respectively 1. Turnout was 77.7%, the highest in 27 years, per the Central Elections Committee 2. Eisenkot claimed victory and appeared to rule out a coalition with Palestinian parties 3, while Netanyahu rejected reliance on "anti-Zionist Arab parties" 1. Yair Golan urged opposition allies to partner with Arab parties 1. The shekel fell 2% and Israeli bond yields rose 2. Official results are due November 4 2.

Analysis
Confidence is high because outlets report consistent counts, with the leading bloc at 53 to 54 seats against a 61-seat threshold, though the figures trace to shared local media projections rather than independent tallies. Arab-led parties hold 18 to 19 seats and the swing votes in the 120-seat Knesset, yet Eisenkot has appeared to rule out partnering with them and Netanyahu rejects reliance on them. Final certified results are very unlikely to give the pro-Netanyahu bloc 61 or more seats by November 6. Netanyahu stays caretaker prime minister while talks run, and the shekel and bond selloff shows markets expect weeks of uncertainty. Late counts could still shift toward his bloc, and defections or a unity government could hand him a path to power without reaching 61. Bond and currency investors and allied governments should plan for a prolonged caretaker period and possible Arab-party involvement, whereas a 61-seat result would let him form a government quickly.
4 sources
  1. No clear winner in Israeli election as polls show race headed toward stalemate, negotiations on forming government - CBS News
  2. Israeli bonds, shekel fall as election leaves Netanyahu and others short of majorities - CNBC
  3. Coalition talks loom in Israel as Netanyahu and Eisenkot blocs set to fall short of majority - The Guardian
  4. Exit polls show outgoing Netanyahu coalition losing majority, but uncertainty over nature of next government - The Times of Israel

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