Allied Intelligence — 2026-07-18

Taiwan Intensifies Counterintelligence Prosecutions and PRC Influencer Crackdowns Under Lai Administration

BLUFTaipei's counterintelligence tempo will very likely sustain 2024-level prosecution rates through Lai's term, institutionalizing a proactive deterrence posture that narrows PRC operational space on the island.

Taiwan indicted 64 people for espionage-related crimes in 2024, up from 48 in 2023 and 10 in 2022, with military personnel accounting for two-thirds of defendants, and Jamestown reports high-profile military espionage cases have risen since President Lai Ching-te introduced a 17-point national security plan in 2025 1. In April, Taiwan's High Court sentenced six military personnel, two active-duty and four retired, to 4.5-8.5 years for leaking military secrets to the PRC in exchange for NT$11.1 million ($348,000) in funding 1. The National Immigration Agency announced in late June that it barred a Chinese man for two years after he used a concealed wearable camera to film restricted security and immigration areas during a November 2025 visit to Taoyuan International Airport, posting footage to Bilibili under the account "White Sheep in the Sky" that referred to Taiwan as "China Taiwan" and covered the Republic of China flag with a PRC flag emoji 12. Taiwan's National Security Bureau also launched a website in late June for Chinese citizens to report intelligence tips, and the government has expelled several PRC influencers, including Douyin personality Liu Zhenya (500,000 followers, deported March 2025 with a five-year reapplication ban) along with two others, Xiaowei and Enqi, for content supporting a PRC takeover of Taiwan 1.

Analysis
Aggressive prosecution and public-facing deterrence signaling will very likely continue through the remainder of Lai's term, anchored by the 17-point national security plan's institutionalization of counterintelligence enforcement across military, media, and immigration channels. High confidence reflects the plan's enacted status, a tripling of indictments over two years, and Lai's lack of alternative levers given Legislative Yuan gridlock under KMT/TPP control. The tip-line website and influencer expulsions shift Taipei's posture from reactive prosecution toward proactive detection and public signaling, which likely draws sharper PRC Taiwan Affairs Office rhetoric and reciprocal targeting of Taiwanese travelers within the coming months.

2 sources

Taiwan Intensifies Resistance to PRC Political Warfare - Jamestown Foundation
Chinese man banned from Taiwan after filming airport restricted areas - Taipei Times