Taiwan Scrambles Jets as China Sends 21 Aircraft Near Coast on Inauguration Anniversary

Analysis
Two patrols within seven days, with 24 median-line crossings in the second, mark a deliberate pressure campaign timed to test Washington's post-summit resolve, though the tempo may instead reflect standing PLA exercise cycles tied to the inauguration anniversary. The Liaoning carrier group's concurrent positioning confirms a coordinated, multi-domain operation. Corroboration rests on two independently filing outlets; the remaining reporting amplifies the Reuters wire. China will very likely conduct at least one more large-scale patrol around Taiwan within the next 30 days. High confidence reflects that back-to-back patrols at this scale have no recent precedent and the operational signature is consistent across all available reporting. Washington's decision on the paused $14 billion arms transfer now carries a compounding question: whether resumption dampens or accelerates Chinese escalation.