Dutch Intelligence Services AIVD and MIVD Were Split on Whether Putin Would Invade Ukraine, AIVD Cited Unique Source CIA and MI6 Lacked

The Dutch Military Intelligence and Security Service assessed before February 2022 that President Putin would invade Ukraine, while the General Intelligence and Security Service concluded he would not, according to an investigation by NU.nl citing multiple intelligence officials 1. The AIVD based its assessment on a long-established source close to Putin that it said neither the CIA nor MI6 could claim to have, but that source proved unaware of the invasion plans, which Putin confined to an extremely narrow circle of advisers 1. The official Dutch government position followed the AIVD line: the government told allies that Putin would not invade, despite U.S. and British efforts to persuade The Hague otherwise 1. A separate Volkskrant investigation, based on interviews with 19 intelligence officers and officials, reported that AIVD Director Erik Akerboom and MIVD Director Jan Swillens briefed Prime Minister Rutte on February 22 that Russia would not invade; two days later the invasion began 2. Dutch skepticism toward U.S. warnings was reinforced by the 2003 Iraq War experience, when American intelligence wrongly claimed Baghdad held weapons of mass destruction, and the Dutch probability assessment moved from "unlikely" to "possible" only about three weeks before the invasion after intelligence on blood plasma transfers to Russian units near the front 2. NATO Military Committee Chairman Rob Bauer rejected the AIVD conclusion, and most Dutch Foreign Ministry experts aligned with the MIVD assessment that an invasion was coming 1.