Trump Rejects Iran Hormuz Reopening Offer, Says Blockade Stays Until Nuclear Deal

Analysis
By rejecting Iran's conditional Hormuz offer, per a single Axios interview, Trump has removed the only off-ramp Tehran publicly floated and signaled Washington will not decouple economic coercion from nuclear compliance. The blockade is likely to hold through May 31, 2026 absent a comprehensive nuclear deal; Tehran has given no public indication it will accept U.S. nuclear terms. CENTCOM's prepared strike package functions as escalation insurance, not an imminent trigger; its disclosure suggests the administration expects a prolonged standoff, not near-term resolution. Iran's offer may have been tactical pressure on Washington rather than genuine negotiating flexibility, meaning Trump's rejection changes less about the underlying dynamic than the public exchange implies.