Global Economy — 2026-07-06

Seven OPEC-Plus Nations Agree to Expand Oil Output by 188000 Barrels Per Day as Hormuz Exports Recover

BLUFOPEC+ will likely approve another output increase on August 2, but Hormuz transit rates at less than a third of pre-war levels ensure announced barrels will continue to outpace deliverable ones.

Seven OPEC+ producers, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman, agreed on Sunday to raise combined output by 188,000 barrels per day starting in August, the fifth consecutive monthly increase 1234. Under the allocation, Saudi Arabia and Russia each add 62,000 bpd, Iraq 26,000 bpd, Kuwait 16,000 bpd, Kazakhstan 10,000 bpd, Algeria 6,000 bpd, and Oman 5,000 bpd 3. The group said it would keep monitoring market conditions and retain flexibility to pause or reverse the adjustments, and set its next meeting for August 2 12. Brent crude traded near $72 a barrel on Friday, back near pre-war levels after peaking above $120 in March, as Strait of Hormuz transits recover gradually, MarineTraffic recording 38 confirmed transits on July 2 versus roughly 130 daily crossings before the war 1. OPEC+ output had fallen to 33.13 million bpd in May from 42.77 million bpd in February before beginning to recover in June 12.

Analysis
OPEC+ will likely announce a further output increase rather than a pause at the August 2 meeting, continuing a fifth straight month of unwound cuts even as physical exports still trail the group's paper targets. High confidence rests on four consecutive unanimous monthly rounds and the group's explicit August 2 meeting date already fixed on the calendar. The larger driver is Hormuz throughput, not OPEC+ cohesion: MarineTraffic counts of 38 daily transits against a roughly 130-crossing pre-war baseline mean announced barrels continue outrunning deliverable ones. That gap, alongside Iraq's push for a larger quota, sets up friction once the 2023 cut is fully unwound in September.
4 sources
  1. OPEC+ countries say they will expand monthly oil production - Al Jazeera
  2. OPEC+ approves further oil output increase as Hormuz exports start to recover - CNBC
  3. Opec+ to raise output for fifth month in August amid uneasy US-Iran truce - The National
  4. 7 OPEC+ countries agree to expand monthly oil production modestly as prices slide - Washington Times

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