Strait of Hormuz Traffic at 5-8 Percent of Normal as Naval Standoff Continues

Analysis
Tehran's 34-tanker bypass, carrying an estimated 10.7 million barrels per proprietary Windward AIS tracking, indicates Iran has hedged against isolation and reduced near-term incentive to accept U.S. terms. Washington's rejection of Tehran's reported reopen offer confirms the closure is being held as leverage for broader concessions. Commercial traffic will likely remain below 20 percent of pre-crisis levels over the next 30 days. Insurance underwriters will not reprice risk until physical security is restored and sustained, meaning no diplomatic announcement alone restores commercial flow. Tehran's offer may also signal more acute economic pressure than bypass volumes capture, pointing to a negotiating position more fragile than current posture implies.