US Restores Full Sanctions on Russian Oil Giants Rosneft and Lukoil After Waiver Expires

Analysis
Full restoration denies Moscow roughly $650 million per month in oil windfall at a moment when Russia's war budget has already overrun its planned annual deficit in three months. A new waiver within 90 days of June 16 is unlikely: the Hormuz justification that underwrote the March exemption has eased, Washington extracted no Russian concession during the period, and no administration signal indicated price conditions warranted extension. Moderate confidence rests on those factors, tempered by Trump's documented preference for transactional reversals when energy markets tighten. All sourcing derives from Vlasiuk's June 26 statement, Ukrainian government characterization without US, Rosneft, or Lukoil confirmation, though that confirmation closes the policy ambiguity that persisted since April. The waiver may have lapsed passively rather than as deliberate escalation, preserving optionality to reinstate quietly. If that optionality is exercised, Indian and Chinese buyers who continued purchasing throughout the exemption period become Treasury's next enforcement pressure point.