Forecasts in the IC Brief use Words of Estimative Probability (WEP), the standard probability language of the US Intelligence Community. Each forecast carries a time window. When the window closes, the outcome is scored against the stated probability using a Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). The reliability curve below plots stated confidence against observed frequency across all resolved forecasts. A window counts as closed the day after its end date, the same rule the resolver uses, and every figure on this page rests on that one definition: the cumulative and rolling Brier, the per-band counts, the Brier chart, the worst calls, and both sides of the rolling coverage ratio.
Coverage: of the 8882 forecasts whose windows have closed, 6903 are scored (78%), 577 resolved ambiguous or superseded, 1212 have no vetted probability on record and are not scored, and 190 have no resolution yet. In the rolling 30-day window, 1515 of 1928 are scored.
| Product | Outcome | Sq. Error |
|---|---|---|
| ICBRIEF | NO | 0.902 |
| Predicted: almost certainly: The KimWolf botnet will continue issuing DDoS attack commands after Butler's arrest, through September 30, 2026. | ||
| How it resolved: Called it almost certainly (95%). The claim proved false. The KimWolf botnet did not continue issuing DDoS attack commands after Butler's arrest through September 30, 2026; reporting explicitly states the botnet ceased operations. The German-language cybersecurity outlet it-daily.net published an article stating 'Kimwolf selbst ist nach übereinstimmenden Angaben inzwischen nicht mehr aktiv' (Kimwolf itself is no longer active according to consistent reports), noting that its techniques were instead adopted by more than 20 competing successor botnet families (https://www.it-daily.net/it-sicherheit/cybercrime/botnetze-wachsen-kimwolf/). | ||
| PDB | NO | 0.722 |
| Predicted: very likely: No permanent UN Security Council member introduces a draft resolution for a binding arms embargo on drone components or complete systems destined for Sudan's conflict parties by September 15, 2026. | ||
| How it resolved: Called it very likely (85%). The claim proved false. The United States, a permanent UN Security Council member, introduced a draft resolution on August 24, 2026, to expand the Sudan arms embargo nationwide and explicitly cover "unmanned aerial vehicles, systems and related technologies," i.e., both complete drone systems and components, destined for Sudan's conflict parties. This is confirmed by Radio Tamazuj, Sudan Tribune, US News, The National, and Voice of Emirates, all reporting the US circulated the draft at the Security Council on or around August 24, 2026. | ||
| UKRAINE | NO | 0.722 |
| Predicted: very likely: EU ambassadors will reach unanimous agreement to renew individual Russia sanctions before the September 15, 2026 deadline lapses. | ||
| How it resolved: Called it very likely (85%). The claim proved false. EU ambassadors did not reach unanimous agreement on a standard six-month renewal of Russia's individual sanctions before the September 15, 2026 deadline. Instead, on September 14, after failing to resolve the France-Slovakia dispute over delisting Alisher Usmanov, ambassadors agreed only to a seven-day technical extension until September 22 to continue negotiations. | ||
| PDB | NO | 0.722 |
| Predicted: very likely: Iran or IRGC-backed proxies conduct at least one armed attack on a US military base or ground facility in Iraq, Bahrain, or Kuwait within 14 days. | ||
| How it resolved: Called it very likely (85%). The claim proved false. No armed attack by Iran or IRGC-backed proxies on a US military base or ground facility in Iraq, Bahrain, or Kuwait was reported between September 6 and September 20, 2026. The last confirmed Iranian strikes on bases in those three countries occurred September 1–3 (before the forecast was published on September 6), targeting Erbil in Iraq, Sheikh Isa airbase in Bahrain, and Ali Al Salem/Ahmad al-Jaber in Kuwait. | ||
| PDB | NO | 0.722 |
| Predicted: very likely: The House will vote to table or otherwise kill Massie's privileged impeachment resolution against Hegseth, rather than advance it toward impeachment, by September 23, 2026. | ||
| How it resolved: Called it very likely (85%). The claim proved false. The House did not vote to table or otherwise formally kill Massie's privileged impeachment resolution against Hegseth by September 23, 2026. Instead, Speaker Johnson sent the House home early on September 16 (Wednesday evening), one day ahead of schedule, canceling Thursday votes entirely to avoid the forced floor vote triggered by the resolution's privileged status. | ||
| ICBRIEF | NO | 0.722 |
| Predicted: very likely: Greens Senator David Shoebridge will table the Pine Gap Traditional Owners' letter in the Australian federal parliament by September 30, 2026. | ||
| How it resolved: Called it very likely (85%). The claim proved false. The Hayes family Pine Gap letter was not tabled in the Australian Senate by September 30, 2026. OpenAustralia.org, a comprehensive index of Australian parliamentary Hansard, returns zero results for 'Hayes' + 'Pine Gap', 'Kuyunba', 'Traditional Owners' + 'Pine Gap', and 'Pine Gap' + 'letter' in 2026, confirming no such tabling was recorded in the official Senate proceedings. | ||
| PDB | NO | 0.722 |
| Predicted: very likely: Brent crude will close above $100 per barrel on September 30, 2026, sustained by the simultaneous Saudi East-West Pipeline outage and Houthi territorial control of Bab el-Mandeb approaches. | ||
| How it resolved: Called it very likely (85%). The claim proved false. Brent crude closed at $98.03 on September 30, 2026, below the $100 threshold specified in the forecast. Trading Economics confirms the September 30 settlement at $98.03, with the price rising back to $100.53 on October 1. | ||
| ICBRIEF | NO | 0.722 |
| Predicted: very likely: Federal prosecutors will file at least one additional criminal count against David Rush related to the alleged CIA gold bar scheme before September 30, 2026. | ||
| How it resolved: Called it very likely (85%). The claim proved false. No additional criminal counts related to the CIA gold bar scheme were filed against David Rush before September 30, 2026. As of September 12, 2026, reporting from Fortune and Military.com confirmed Rush still faced only the original single charge of theft of public money (timesheet fraud), and prosecutors 'have not filed charges tied to the gold itself as the case remains in a pre-indictment stage.' Instead of filing additional charges, prosecutors reached a tentative plea deal with Rush, and a federal judge extended the indictment deadline to October 8, 2026, past the forecast window. | ||
| PDB | NO | 0.722 |
| Predicted: very likely: Global oil prices will remain above $90/barrel Brent through Q3 2026 if Hormuz disruption continues at current intensity. | ||
| How it resolved: Called it very likely (85%). The claim proved false. Brent crude oil fell well below $90/barrel during July 2026, averaging approximately $83–84/barrel for the month and dropping as low as $71.14 on July 1, 2026, decisively breaking the forecast's threshold. This price collapse coincided with a brief US-Iran ceasefire agreement in June that temporarily eased Strait of Hormuz shipping restrictions; prices at the week ending July 10 stood at only $76.02 (Farms.com commodity update). | ||
| ICBRIEF | NO | 0.722 |
| Predicted: very likely: Congress enacts a Section 702 reauthorization in any form (permanent, multi-year, or short-term extension) before September 30, 2026. | ||
| How it resolved: Called it very likely (85%). The claim proved false. Congress did not enact a Section 702 reauthorization between the forecast publication date (May 21, 2026) and the window close (September 30, 2026). Instead, Section 702 lapsed in mid-June 2026 for the first time since 2008 and remained lapsed. | ||