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Ukraine Daily Brief

Current as of 0334 EDT (UTC-04), Monday 13 July 2026

Contents

9 stories from 45 sources across 24 organizations

KEY JUDGMENTS

Ukraine's coordinated naval drone and grid-attack campaign has imposed compound logistics denial on occupied Crimea, and Russian occupation authorities will likely fail to restore normal fuel supply to the peninsula by the pledged July 24 target. Moderate confidence rests on the absence of any disclosed countermeasure or resupply mechanism, the intensifying strike tempo of roughly one vessel engagement every two hours for a week, and Russia's own suspension of Don-Azov Canal navigation.

Three denial mechanisms converge: the canal closure severs the primary inland waterway, naval drone strikes attrit shadow-fleet tankers at sea, and targeted substation destruction disrupts fuel distribution even if deliveries resume. A resumption of canal traffic would signal either effective counter-drone deployment or a political decision to accept attrition losses.

Ukraine's accession track advanced for the second time in a month with Committee of Permanent Representatives (EU Council) (Coreper)'s unanimous Cluster Six approval covering foreign and defense policy, while the Verkhovna Rada adopted 13 laws to unlock $3.35 billion from the World Bank, though competing legislative demands leave mobilization-procedure reform, flagged by both ombudsmen after the Lviv riot, without a timeline.

Armed Conflict

Ukraine Strikes Russian Oil Depot in Stavropol Krai as Explosions Reported in Moscow Oblast

BLUF: Sustained saturation-level drone barrages forcing repeat airport restrictions around Moscow indicate Russian capital air defenses are being stretched beyond reliable coverage by Ukraine's current sortie tempo.

Ukrainian drones struck the Lukoil-Yugnefteprodukt oil depot near Vyazniki in Stavropol Krai overnight into July 13, igniting a fire, monitoring channel Exilenova Plus and Russian outlet Astra reported, with Stavropol Krai Governor Vladimir Vladimirov confirming the blaze in an industrial area near the settlement 12. Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said air defenses intercepted 11 drones approaching the capital since the start of the day, part of roughly 300 drones his office said headed toward the Moscow region over the prior 24 hours, with 45 shot down near the city 23. Exilenova Plus also reported explosions in Solnechnogorsk, Moscow Oblast, as air defenses engaged, details the Kyiv Independent said it could not independently verify 1. Moscow's Domodedovo airport shifted to coordination-procedure flight operations and Zhukovsky airport imposed restrictions amid the response 2.

Analyst Note: A repeat strike on the same Vyazniki depot within days indicates Russian repair and dispersal efforts are not keeping pace with Ukrainian sortie tempo, and Kyiv is treating fuel storage as a target requiring multiple passes rather than one-time destruction. Roughly 300 drones tracked toward Moscow over 24 hours, exceeding the prior cycle's Tver and Stavropol reporting, show Ukraine can now sustain saturation-level pressure on the capital's air defense network on a near-nightly basis. Reporting converges narrowly on Exilenova Plus and Astra feeds, with Xinhua relying solely on Sobyanin's statement, so corroboration is thinner than the multiple outlets suggest. The unverified Solnechnogorsk explosions may reflect intercepted drone debris rather than a separate strike site.

Sources:

1: Ukraine reportedly strikes Russian oil depot in Stavropol Krai, explosions reported in Moscow Oblast - Kyiv Independent

2: Drones strike Moscow and oil depot in Russia's Stavropol Krai, sparking fire – video - Ukrayinska Pravda

3: Massive drone attacks target Moscow region: official - Xinhua

Drones strike Moscow and oil depot in Russia Stavropol Krai sparking fire - Ukrainska Pravda

Prior Reporting - [Russia wrapped its fuel tanks in protective nets, Ukraine's drones burned them regardless: two oil depots burned last night](https://euromaidanpress.com/2026/07/09/russia-wrapped-its-fuel-tanks-in-protective-nets-ukraines-drones-burned-them-regardless-two-oil-depots-burned-last-night/) (2026-07-09) - [Drone Strikes Trigger Fires at Oil Depots in Russia's Tver and Stavropol](https://caspianpost.com/regions/drone-strikes-trigger-fires-at-oil-depots-in-russia-s-tver-and-stavropol) (2026-07-09)

Ukraine Naval Drone Swarm Hits 48 Russian Vessels in Five Days Battering Crimea Fuel Lifeline

BLUF: Sustained drone attrition at this tempo threatens to price shadow-fleet tankers out of the Crimea run, compounding the peninsula's fuel isolation faster than Russia can adapt overland alternatives.

Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces commander Robert "Madyar" Brovdi reported that drone operators struck 48 Russian vessels over the past 120 hours in waters approaching occupied Crimea 12. Brovdi said the overnight tally on July 10 alone included 13 vessels, among them 10 tankers, one bulk carrier, one ferry, and one tugboat, with all struck tankers identified as part of Russia's sanctioned shadow fleet 12. The same overnight operation disabled five electrical substations in Crimea under an effort Ukrainian forces termed "Crimean Switch Off," including facilities at Molochne, Saky, Yevpatoria, Novoozerne, and Medvedeve, and struck 41 military targets across the operational depth of Crimea and southern occupied territories 12. Kyiv Post, United24 Media, and Mezha.net each attributed the figures to Brovdi's Telegram channel, while Ukraine's General Staff gave a different count for the same night, 18 vessels comprising 13 tankers, three dry cargo ships, one ferry, and one auxiliary vessel, and reported additional strikes on the Ilsky oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai, the Kurgannefteprodukt oil terminal in Taganrog, and the Azovnefteprodukt fuel depot in Azov, Rostov Oblast, per Euromaidan Press 3.

Analyst Note: The reported tally, if accurate, marks an escalation in Ukraine's campaign to sever Crimea's fuel supply chain by targeting the shadow-fleet tankers that increasingly substitute for exposed overland routes into the peninsula. Pairing the maritime strikes with coordinated hits on five substations and 41 inland targets indicates Kyiv is sequencing naval and grid attacks to compound disruption rather than pursuing either track in isolation. A claimed 48 vessels in five days would represent one of the densest concentrations of reported drone strikes against Russian shipping in this theater to date, with implications for insurance and risk premiums on sanctioned tanker routes serving occupied Crimea.

Sources:

1: Ukraine's Drone Campaign Hits 48 Russian Vessels in Five Days, Including Shadow Fleet Tankers Near Crimea - United24 Media

2: Ukrainian drones hit 48 Russian shadow fleet vessels near Crimea, targeting tankers and infrastructure - Mezha.net

3: Ukraine batters Russias Crimea fuel lifeline as drone swarm hits 48 ships in five days - Euromaidan Press

48 одиниць плавзасобів уражено Птахами СБС протягом 120 годин - Robert "Madyar" Brovdi / Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces (Telegram, @robert_magyar)

48 суден противника уразили оператори Сил безпілотних систем за 120 годин - Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces (Telegram, via commander Robert "Madyar" Brovdi)

Ukraine Says It Struck 48 Russian Vessels in Five Days, Including Shadow Fleet Tankers - Kyiv Post

Russia Halts Azov-Don Canal Shipping as Ukrainian Drone Campaign Hits 90 Vessels in One Week

BLUF: Restoration of Don-Azov Canal navigation is very unlikely within 30 days, leaving Russia to absorb compounding costs to Crimean fuel resupply and wheat export capacity through the peak shipping season.

Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces commander Robert "Madyar" Brovdi reported that drone operators struck 90 Russian vessels in the Sea of Azov between July 6 and July 12, including tankers, tugboats, ferries, and dry cargo ships, with 14 more hit overnight into July 12, 10 tankers and four ferries among them 1234. Ukraine's General Staff stated the targeted vessels support Russian military logistics and are used to transport oil and petroleum products while circumventing international sanctions 25. Reuters reported, citing three sources in Russia's grain export industry, that Russia suspended navigation through the Don-Azov Canal on July 10, with border guards telling shipping companies they would stop accepting Kerch Strait passage applications effective 6:10 p.m. local time that day and no timeline given for restoration 56. Brovdi separately said a target he called the "Crimean switch" was struck overnight into July 12, with evidence to be released later 34. Market analysts cited by Reuters estimated up to one-quarter of Russia's wheat exports transit the Sea of Azov, and Euronext wheat futures rose as much as 4% on July 10 6.

Analyst Note: Russia's suspension of Don-Azov Canal transit and refusal of new Kerch Strait passage applications is very unlikely to reverse within 30 days, since restoring navigation would require sending undefended shadow-fleet tankers back into a strike zone Ukrainian drones have hit roughly once every two hours for a week. Low confidence reflects the absence of any Russian countermeasure, repair announcement, or stated reopening timeline, leaving the closure's duration to inference. The halt already compounds pressure on Crimea's fuel resupply and on Russia's wheat export capacity, evident in Euronext futures pricing in disruption. A prolonged closure would force Moscow toward costlier overland or rerouted logistics for both the peninsula and grain shipments.

Sources:

1: One Russian ship every 112 minutes for a week: Ukraine hits 14 more vessels as total tally nears 100 - Euromaidan Press

2: Ukrainian Drones Hit 90 Russian Vessels in the Sea of Azov - Kyiv Post

3: Ukraine Hits 14 More Russian Vessels, Bringing Weekly Total to 90 in the Sea of Azov - United24 Media

4: Ukraine's drone commander posts video showing strikes on 14 Russian vessels overnight - Ukrainska Pravda

5: Ukraine says it struck 21 Russian tankers as Moscow reportedly halts shipping through key canal - Kyiv Independent

6: Russia halts shipping through Don-Azov Canal after Ukrainian attack - Reuters (via Yahoo News; vessel-strike tally originates from Ukraine Unmanned Systems Forces commander Robert "Madyar" Brovdi's Telegram posts)

Commander's post on 14 vessels struck overnight, 90 in one week - Robert "Madyar" Brovdi (Facebook)

Russian Guided Bomb Attack on Sumy Kills Five Including Child and Injures 43 at Public Transport Stop

BLUF: Back-to-back guided bomb strikes on the same Sumy district within a week reflect a deliberate campaign against civilian areas that current air defenses cannot disrupt.

Russian forces struck the Zarichnyi district of Sumy with three guided aerial bombs on Friday afternoon, hitting civilian infrastructure including a road and public transport stop 12. Sumy Regional Military Administration head Oleh Hryhorov reported five people killed, including a 13-year-old girl at the transport stop, and 43 injured, five in serious condition 1; earlier tallies from police and other outlets cited four dead and injured counts ranging from 17 to 31 as the toll rose through the day 3456. Glavcom, citing the Prosecutor General's Office, identified three of the male victims as aged 54, 66, and 58, with a fourth death recorded at a hospital 4. The strikes damaged seven apartment buildings, a car dealership, a gas station, a restaurant, and multiple vehicles, and Ukraine's State Emergency Service evacuated 140 residents, including 20 children, from one damaged building 2. The Prosecutor's Office opened a war crimes investigation into the attack on civilians 1.

Analyst Note: The rising toll from four to five dead and 43 injured tracks hospitals completing intake rather than a second strike, and the wide spread in early casualty figures more plausibly reflects fragmented same-day reporting from a still-unfolding emergency response than any discrepancy in the underlying facts. Two of three guided bombs hit a transit stop and apartment blocks rather than a discrete military target, extending a pattern of Guided Aerial Bomb (Russian: korrektirovannaya aviatsionnaya bomba) (KAB) strikes on this Sumy district that killed four including a child one week earlier. Reporting rests on three primary Ukrainian outlets corroborating independently with secondary amplification but no international wire confirmation, capping confidence at moderate. The war crimes referral builds an evidentiary record but carries no near-term enforcement mechanism absent custody of Russian personnel or a negotiated accountability track.

Sources:

1: Russian guided bomb attack on Sumy kills 5, including child, injures 43 - Kyiv Independent

2: Окупанти скинули три керовані авіабомби по Зарічному району Сум - LB.ua

3: Four killed, including child, and 17 injured in Russian attack on Sumy - Ukrainska Pravda

4: У Сумах після російської атаки п'ятеро загиблих та десятки поранених: моторошні фото - Glavcom

5: The number of injured in Sumy after the KAB strike has increased to 17, among the dead is a child - UNN

6: Four Dead and Seven Injured as Russian Guided Bombs Hit Sumy - Kyiv Post

Ukraine Crimea Blockade Causes Fuel Crisis, Tourism Collapse, and Mass Power Outages

BLUF: Occupation authorities' pledge to restore fuel supplies by July 24 is unlikely to hold, and sustained scarcity through peak tourist season will degrade Russia's governance credibility on the peninsula faster than its military posture.

Ukrainian drone strikes have hit nearly all bridges into Crimea and struck shipping and fuel infrastructure over the past several days, cutting the Russian-occupied peninsula off from fuel supplies during peak tourist season, according to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) 12. Ukraine's drone chief, Robert Brovdi, reported roughly 50 strikes in five days, a figure RFE/RL said could not be independently confirmed 2. Crimea's former tourism minister, Oleksandr Liev, told Current Time on July 10 that fuel had stopped appearing even at inflated black-market prices, and residents also reported food and water shortages along with stranded tourists seeking evacuation help 1. Residents in Sudak, Novy Svet and Chornomorske reported extended power, internet and phone outages this week, with one Chornomorske resident describing five hours of electricity over four and a half days; Russian-imposed authorities have operated "assistance centers" offering phone charging and landline access in several cities since July 5 12. Supermarket prices have risen sharply and some small businesses have closed, attributed to fuel-driven logistics disruption and drivers' fear of drone strikes on fuel trucks, while Russian occupation authorities said this week the supply problems would be resolved within two weeks without detailing how 12.

Analyst Note: Occupation authorities' pledge to resolve the fuel and power crisis by July 24 is unlikely to hold, since no logistics fix has been disclosed and Ukrainian forces continue treating fuel trucks and shipping as legitimate targets. Confidence is low, reflecting reliance on a single primary account and unverified Ukrainian strike-tempo claims, with the shortage compounding refinery disruptions already rippling across mainland Russia so relief for the peninsula competes with fuel demand elsewhere. Shortages may stem primarily from Russia's broader nationwide refinery-strike fuel crunch rather than a distinct, Crimea-specific blockade effect. Sustained scarcity through peak tourist season erodes occupation governance narratives more than Ukrainian military calculus, and if the pledge fails, Kyiv gains evidence that strikes on fuel transport degrade Crimea's tourist economy and administrative control, reinforcing continued drone allocation against fuel logistics targets.

Sources:

1: No Gas, No Lights, No Comms, No Tourists: Ukraine Crimea Blockade Starts To Bite - Eurasia Review / RFE/RL

2: No Gas, No Lights, No Comms, No Tourists: Ukraine's Crimea Blockade Starts To Bite - RFE/RL

Ukrainian Domestic

Lviv Mobilization Riot Exposes Unreformed Draft System as Two Government Watchdogs Blame Recruitment Rules Not Crowd

BLUF: Convergent criticism from both state ombudsmen shifts blame onto the Defense Ministry's draft procedures, yet absent a committed reform timeline, recurrent street-level clashes over mobilization will erode public compliance faster than institutional inertia yields.

A crowd of about 200 people in Lviv's Sykhiv district blocked, beat, and overturned a territorial recruitment center vehicle on the evening of July 8 after officers stopped and detained a 30-year-old man wanted since June 12 for draft-registration violations 12. The standoff ran roughly five hours; the recruitment center reported two servicemen hospitalized while police put the figure at four security-force members injured, and a deputy district police chief also suffered head trauma 23. Police said an off-duty serviceman fired shots into the air to disperse the crowd, hitting no one 3, and the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) opened a criminal probe for obstruction of military activity while a 23-year-old, identified in court as Oleh Havrylov, was charged over the assault on police 24. Human rights ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets and military ombudsman Olha Reshetylova both attributed the clash to unreformed mobilization procedures rather than crowd conduct; Lubinets called on the Defense Ministry to form a working group to rewrite draft rules, citing years of unresolved abuse complaints 45. The General Staff and Office of the President condemned the attack on servicemen and ordered an official investigation 26.

Analyst Note: Two independent watchdogs converging on procedural failure rather than crowd conduct as the cause raises the political cost of continued inaction inside the Defense Ministry, though the disputed injury tally and dueling accounts of who struck first show the state has not settled a single public narrative, leaving room for backlash against both recruiters and evaders to grow in parallel. Vigilante actors already extracting apologies outside police channels signal informal enforcement filling a gap the state has not closed, though the recruitment center's own self-defense account and claims of incomplete footage frame this as a policing dispute rather than a systemic one. Sourcing draws on primary official statements corroborated by four independently converging secondary outlets. Whether the ministry moves from condemnation to an actual procedural review with a public timeline is unresolved.

Sources:

1: У Львові натовп людей перевернув та понівечив автівку ТЦК - Ukrainska Pravda

2: How a street check in Lviv became a warning sign for Ukraine's mobilization system - Kyiv Independent

3: Lviv mobilization riot exposes the draft system Ukraines government has refused to fix - Euromaidan Press

4: Лубінець закликав до реформи мобілізації після нападу на військових ТЦК у Львові - Radio Svoboda (RFE/RL)

5: The state must assess both sides - Lubinets after the incident with the TCC in Lviv - UNN

6: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine condemned the attack on military personnel of the Territorial Recruitment Centers in Lviv and announced an official investigation - UNN

Lviv Crowd Overturns TRC Vehicle During Mobilization Clash, Officials Condemn Attack - Kyiv Post

Energy

Zelensky Urges Energy Sector to Accelerate Winter Preparedness After Sustained Russian Infrastructure Strikes

BLUF: Zelensky's public pressure on regional administrators signals energy hardening is behind schedule, narrowing the window to close grid vulnerabilities before Russia's winter strike campaign resumes.

President Zelensky met with First Vice Prime Minister and Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal on Sunday and said the government needs "new and more decisive steps" to protect Ukraine's energy sector and strategic infrastructure nationwide, according to a Telegram post relayed by Ukrinform 1. Zelensky said resilience plans for Ukraine's regions and communities must be implemented "to the same high standard everywhere," warning that delays in any region threaten lives 1. He said Ukraine has secured intergovernmental agreements in energy and recovery but that existing commitments are insufficient, and the two discussed priorities for the coming weeks and months 1. The Kyiv Independent reported Zelensky praised Naftogaz for meeting national performance targets despite repeated Russian strikes and thanked CEO Serhii Koretskyi, while noting Ukraine's 5.4 billion euro energy resilience plan remains unfunded ahead of a winter officials warn could be harsher than last year's 2.

Analyst Note: Zelensky's call for "more decisive" protective steps, and his warning that uneven regional implementation "threatens lives," reframes grid hardening as an accountability matter for local administrations rather than a purely technical gap, while parallel outreach to Naftogaz signals Kyiv is working political and operational tracks simultaneously to close the distance between announced agreements and facilities actually hardened before winter. Single-source reporting, with Kyiv Independent and Ukrinform both relaying the same statement without independent documentation of specific measures, limits confidence in how much has changed on the ground. The messaging may function chiefly as domestic accountability signaling toward the cabinet rather than a genuine policy shift, and absent measurable benchmarks tied to this appeal, its practical effect hinges on whether regional authorities convert the directive into verifiable protective works before strikes intensify with colder weather.

Sources:

1: Zelensky discusses measures to protect energy infrastructure with Shmyhal - Ukrinform

2: Zelensky urges energy sector to speed up winter preparedness - Kyiv Independent

Zelenskyy and Shmyhal discussed strengthening the protection of Ukraine energy sector and resilience - UNN

Telegram post on meeting with Denys Shmyhal on energy sector and strategic infrastructure protection - Volodymyr Zelensky (official Telegram channel)

EU Accession

EU Unanimously Opens Cluster Six Accession Negotiations With Ukraine and Moldova

BLUF: Budapest's silence through a second unanimous vote confirms Hungary's veto reversal is durable, clearing the path for Ukraine's accession negotiations to reach defense and foreign-policy substance.

EU ambassadors in Coreper approved opening Cluster 6, covering foreign, security and defense policy, in accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova on Friday, according to the Irish EU Council presidency and Ukrainian Vice Prime Minister Taras Kachka 12. The cluster covers chapters 30 (external relations) and 31 (foreign, security and defence policy) and follows the opening of Cluster 1 ("fundamentals") in mid-June 1. Coreper also agreed the same day to provisionally close chapters 25, 26 and 30 for Albania and chapters 8 and 29 for Montenegro 1. Final confirmation of the Cluster 6 opening for Ukraine and Moldova is set for an EU intergovernmental conference on July 14 23.

Analyst Note: Coreper's unanimous approval, taken without a Hungarian objection, confirms Budapest's June reversal on the veto has held through a second procedural test rather than a one-off, and folds Kyiv and Chisinau's defense and foreign-policy coordination with Brussels into a formal negotiating chapter instead of ad hoc alignment. Reporting draws on the Irish presidency and Kachka statements without independent confirmation outside the Ukrainian and EU-enlargement press cluster, limiting this to narrow corroboration. The same-day closure of chapters for Albania and Montenegro suggests the unanimity may reflect the Irish presidency banking enlargement wins before summer recess rather than a substantive shift in member states' appetite for defense-policy integration with Kyiv. The July 14 intergovernmental conference, not Friday's vote, is the act that formally opens the cluster.

Sources:

1: EU countries give the go-ahead for a new accession track for Kyiv - EUnews

2: EU ambassadors agree to open 6th cluster of negotiations on Ukraine's accession to EU - Kachka - UkrNews

3: Next step for Ukraine EU membership talks unlocks on July 14 - Kyiv Independent

EU Ambassadors Endorse Opening External Relations Cluster for Ukraine Accession - United24 Media

Reconstruction

Ukraine Receives 3.35 Billion Dollars From World Bank Under Jobs and Private Sector Growth Program

BLUF: Kyiv's wartime fiscal stability now rests on sustained World Bank program compliance, and whether Ukraine meets unspecified reform conditions for the next $1 billion tranche by year-end 2026 remains genuinely uncertain.

Ukraine received $3.35 billion into its state budget under the First Jobs and Private Sector Growth Development Policy Program, a joint operation with the World Bank, Prime Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko said 123. The disbursement follows agreements signed by Ukraine and the World Bank on June 24 on the sidelines of the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Gdańsk 12, formalizing a World Bank operation announced on June 22 to boost private-sector financing and skilled-labor employment 3. Svyrydenko said the funds will support macro-financial stability and finance priority state budget expenditures under martial law, and that the government and Verkhovna Rada adopted 13 laws and seven implementing regulations covering public procurement, factoring services, EU energy market integration, agricultural sector reform, veteran entrepreneurship, housing policy, and preschool and vocational education modernization to meet program conditions 123. The $3.39 billion total financing package comprises a $1.04 billion World Bank loan backed by $540 million in credit enhancement from the ADVANCE Ukraine Trust Fund supported by Japan and $500 million in guarantees from the United Kingdom, plus a $2.35 billion grant from the F.O.R.T.I.S. Financial Intermediary Fund. The program's next stage envisions an additional $1 billion by the end of 2026 contingent on further conditions 123.

Analyst Note: The disbursement extends Kyiv's fiscal runway for wartime spending without new domestic revenue, embedding budget stability in continued World Bank program compliance rather than tax or debt markets. UK and Japan guarantees insulate this tranche from World Bank board risk but do not automatically extend to the next stage, leaving wartime legislative bandwidth as the binding constraint on the additional $1 billion envisioned by the end of 2026, whose conditions remain unspecified and genuinely uncertain. The reform package may reflect World Bank conditionality timed to unlock financing rather than durable Ukrainian governance priorities, and sourcing rests on Svyrydenko's own statements relayed by wire services with only the World Bank's release as an independent primary account. Donor governments weighing further budget-support guarantees need clarity on whether Kyiv clears the follow-on tranche, since failure forces alternative financing or martial-law budget cuts while success confirms the reform pipeline remains creditable. Moderate confidence reflects the on-record terms against the absence of published follow-on conditionality.

Sources:

1: Ukraine receives USD 3.35B from World Bank - Ukrinform

2: Ukraine's state budget receives $3.35 bln under World Bank joint program – Svyrydenko - Interfax-Ukraine

3: Ukraine attracted $3.3 billion from the World Bank - UNN

New World Bank Development Policy Operation to Boost Ukraine's Private Sector Financing and Attract Skilled Labor to Jobs

COLLECTION GAPS

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